TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/102990/1029009.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 5.5 KB | 117 lines

                                                                                WORLD, Page 51

The Agony of Victory


By reuniting Beirut, Syria's Hafez Assad is the first clear-cut
winner of the gulf crisis. The Lebanese may not fare as well.


    On the road leading up to the presidential palace, former
headquarters of renegade General Michel Aoun, Lebanese army
soldiers sat proudly last week atop hundreds of Soviet-made
T-54 tanks, savoring the defeat of the mutinous general. Their
presence testified to the Lebanese government's new hold on
Beirut, but the symbolism was illusory. Beneath the Lebanese
paper flags that the troops plastered on the tanks' turrets
were Syrian army markings. The Lebanese soldiers were only
window dressing, for the T-54s had been manned by Syrian troops
in the offensive that dislodged Aoun two weeks ago.

    The Persian Gulf crisis remains unresolved, but it has
already produced its first clear-cut winner: Syrian President
Hafez Assad. By crushing Aoun's 11-month rebellion once and for
all, Assad has expanded his already considerable influence over
his western neighbor. Under ordinary circumstances, an
extension of Syrian hegemony in Lebanon would have provoked
alarm in several foreign capitals, especially Washington and
Jerusalem. But by strongly supporting the U.S.-led alliance
against Saddam Hussein, Assad has won a wide berth for
exercising his might. While denying speculation that Washington
acquiesced to Syria's raid on Aoun's forces, all the U.S. State
Department could say was that it hopes Aoun's neutralization
"ends a sad chapter of Lebanon's history."

    There is at least a chance that it may do that. The routing
of Aoun eliminated the greatest obstacle to implementation of
the Taif peace agreement, a plan approved by Lebanon's National
Assembly a year ago that would give the country's Muslim
majority an equal share of power with the long-dominant
Christians. Aoun, who escaped during the fighting to the French
embassy, where he remained holed up last week, had revolted
against the accord because it provided no timetable for the
withdrawal of Syrian forces in Lebanon, who number 40,000.
France has granted Aoun asylum, but Lebanese President Elias
Hrawi's government insists that he remain in the country to
face trial for, among other things, allegedly pilfering $75
million from the treasury.

    With Aoun out of the picture, most of Lebanon north of the
Chouf Mountains is expected to enjoy relative peace. Several
of the dozen or so militias that sprang up during the country's
15 years of civil war have promised to disband their forces and
transform themselves into political parties. The pro-Iranian
Hizballah, a Shi`ite extremist group that is thought to hold
most of the Western hostages in Lebanon, feels threatened by
the recent Syrian deployment in its stronghold, Beirut's
southern suburbs. But given the importance Damascus attaches to
its relations with Iran, especially in the midst of the effort
to isolate Iraq, the Syrians are unlikely to turn on Hizballah
yet. Last week Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa
dampened speculation that some of the British captives were to
be released soon, saying such a development was unlikely.

    While stability may be in the offing for Lebanon,
independence remains elusive, a point Lebanese authorities have
not been ashamed to acknowledge. Said Hussein al-Husseini, the
speaker of parliament: "We need Syria again in the next stages
to extend legal authority and disarm the militias."

    It is not just Hizballah that is wary of Syria's heightened
role in Lebanon. Residents of the 80-sq.-mi. enclave formerly
controlled by Aoun are terrified by the foreigners. They claim
that the Syrians coldly murdered 80 captured soldiers loyal to
Aoun. Reporters were shown the corpses of more than 30 men in
the basement of the Baabda General Hospital who had apparently
been shot at close range in the neck and head. Hrawi's
government has denied charges of a massacre, but France has
asked the United Nations to investigate.

    Police say at least 350 people died in the eight-hour battle
for Aoun's turf, and 1,200 were wounded. But based on the
accounts of military and hospital sources, the toll may be as
high as 750, which would make the confrontation the single
deadliest day in the civil war.

    Regardless of what happens in northern Lebanon, the south
will probably remain explosive. There is little chance the
government's authority will be extended soon to Sidon, home to
15,000 Palestinian guerrillas, most of whom support Saddam
Hussein. Even Syrian troops do not dare venture to Sidon. The
Shi`ite Muslim Amal and Hizballah factions continue to attack
each other in the Iqlim Al Toffah region east of Sidon, while
communist, Hizballah and Palestinian militants sometimes try
to raid Israeli positions in southern Lebanon.

    Hrawi's government began last week to dismantle the
nine-mile-long Green Line, a jumble of sandbags, earth, barbed
wire and rusted freight containers that divided Christian east
Beirut from the mainly Muslim western section like a jagged
wound. But there were no signs of jubilation on either side of
the boundary when Hrawi announced the imminent reunification
of Beirut. The Green Line has been bulldozed several times
before. But on each occasion, it was only a short time before
fighting resumed and a new scar was cut through the city.


By Lisa Beyer. Reported by Lara Marlowe/Beirut.